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The post Eco Data 8/24/26 appeared first on ActionForex.

With no last-minute deal to avoid new section 338 tariffs, new tariffs have now officially taken effect on another subset of U.S. imports from Canada. As we noted previously, the measures apply a 50% tariff rate on U.S. imports accounting for about 5% of Canad

Dollar Is Approaching a Much Bigger Technical Test Dollar’s selloff is not just about this week’s Treasury buyback announcement. DXY has broken important support and is moving toward levels that could turn a medium-term decline into a much larger structural br

EUR/USD’s rally from 1.1323 extended further to 1.1710 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations. Downside should be contained by 1.1565 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 1.1710

USD/JPY dipped lower to 157.99 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 157.99 will extend the fall from 159.76 to retest 155.22 low. In case of another rise, strong resistance could emerge from 1

GBP/USD’s rise form 1.3139 resumed by breaking through 1.3557 decisively last week. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 100% projection of 1.3139 to 1.3557 from 1.3272 at 1.3690. Firm break there will target a retest on 1.3867 high. On the downside,

USD/CHF’s fall from 0.8205 extended to 0.7948 last week but recovered ahead of near term channel floor. Initial bias is turned neutral first. On the downside, decisive break of the channel support (now at 0.7928) will solidify the case that rebound from 0.7603

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6864 continued last week and accelerated higher. Initial bias remains on the upside this week. Firm break of 161.8% projection of 0.6864 to 0.7026 from 0.6921 at 0.7183 will bring retest of 0.7277 high. On the downside, below 0.7128 mino

USD/CAD’s decline from 1.4247 accelerated lower last week and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 1.3480 low. On the upside, above 1.3811 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. In

GBP/JPY’s rally continued last week and the development is inline with the case that corrective fall from 219.56 has already completed. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for retesting 219.56 high. On the downside, below 216.20 minor support will turn

EUR/JPY’s rally from 179.34 continued last week. The development is inline with the case that fall from 187.93 has completed as a three wave correction. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 187.42 resistance. Firm break there will target a retest on

EUR/GBP’s rebound was capped below 0.8585 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Rise from 0.8453 could still extend. But strong resistance should be seen from 0.8610 support turned resistance to limit upside. On the downside, break of 0.8530

EUR/AUD reversed after rebounding to 1.1644 last week, but stays above 1.6250 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 1.6250 will extend the fall from 1.6617 to retest 1.6108 low. On the upside, above 1.6444 will b

EUR/CHF’s steep pullback last week suggests short term topping at 0.9408. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations first. Below 0.9304 will bring deeper pullback, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.8979 to 0.9408 at 0.9

Key takeaways Canada inflation & BoC stance: July CPI accelerated to 3.0% YoY, pressuring USD/CAD in the short term, but the Bank of Canada maintains a cautious stance as underlying core metrics continue to moderate. Australian labor & RBA dilemma: A sharp con

Our summary of recent economic events and what to expect in the weeks ahead. Canadian Highlights The U.S. delayed planned 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods by three days, providing brief breathing room as trade talks between the two countries continue. Cana

Next week, July’s personal income and spending report is expected to show resilient consumer demand, while PCE inflation should point to easing underlying price pressures. Jackson Hole will also be in focus, and Chair Warsh is likely to emphasize the Fed’s lon

Monday, Aug 24, 2026 Tuesday, Aug 25, 2026 Wednesday, Aug 26, 2026 Thursday, Aug 27, 2026 Friday, Aug 28, 2026 The post Summary 8/24 – 8/28 appeared first on ActionForex.

Brent oil price continues to trend higher and holds near one-month high on Friday, on track for the second consecutive strong weekly gain (up almost 6% for the week). Growing uncertainty in the Middle East, where the US tries to impose the toughest sanctions o

Kevin Warsh to make his Jackson Hole debut amid confusing messaging. But a major hawkish surprise unlikely after bond market intervention. Nvidia earnings to also determine market direction as stock rally cools. US PCE inflation and Tokyo CPI data may spur add

Next Friday’s Canadian gross domestic product reports for June and Q2 are expected to confirm a strong rebound in economic activity following stalling growth over the winter. Statistics Canada reports two different measures of real GDP based on monthly product

News of the week was the unusual intervention in the bond market by the US Treasury on Wednesday, as they announced at least a doubling of “liquidity support buyback operations” in long-dated bonds. Long bond yields had reached new cycle highs at the beginning

Markets Flash EMU PMI surveys showed eurozone business activity continuing to rise in August amid stronger manufacturing growth. It sets the eurozone up for a robust increase in third quarter GDP around 0.3%, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. The co

US private-sector growth accelerated sharply in August, with PMI Composite Output rising from 54.5 to 56.0, its highest in 52 months. PMI Services Business Activity climbed from 54.6 to 56.8, a 20-month high, becoming main driver of expansion. PMI Manufacturin

US long-term Treasury yields reached their highest levels since 2007. Higher oil prices revived concerns about inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The Treasury doubled the scale of its long-term bond buyback programme. The intervention stabilis

Why Dollar weakness is spreading even as its original catalyst fades, and what that shift in market interpretation reveals about the $40 trillion debt problem underneath What’s happening: Dollar’s selloff has broadened across the G10 board, with DXY hovering n

Canada retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in June to CAD 74.3bn, beating expectations for 0.4% and following a revised 1.1% gain in May. Sales increased in seven of nine subsectors. More importantly, core retail sales excluding gasoline and motor vehicles rose 1.2%, e

Gold traded above 4,500 USD per ounce on Friday, on track to close higher for the third straight week. Demand for safe-haven assets has increased amid heightened volatility in foreign exchange and debt markets. Rising oil prices continue to fuel inflation risk

Headlines: Gold stays poised to post third straight week of gains US Treasury move risks creating unintended consequences for markets and the economy Why markets care more about the signal than the size of the Treasury buyback How have interest rate expectatio

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Rise from 1.1323 should target 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323 at 1.1791 next. Firm break there will bring retest of 1.2081 high. On the downside, below 1.1657 minor support will turn intrada

Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current recovery. In case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen from 159.59 to 160.62 zone (50% and 61.8% retracement of 163.97 to 155.22) to limit upside. On the downside, below 157.99 will bri

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.3139 would target 100% projection of 1.3139 to 1.3557 from 1.3272 at 1.3690. Firm break there will target a retest on 1.3867 high. On the downside, below 1.3593 minor support will turn i

USD/CHF’s fall from 0.8205 short term top is in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside for rising channel support (now at 0.7921). Sustained break there will solidify the case that rebound from 0.7603 has completed with three waves up to 0.8205. Deep

AUD/USD’s rally from 0.6864 resumed after brief consolidations. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 161.8% projection of 0.6864 to 0.7026 from 0.6921 at 0.7183. Firm break there will bring retest of 0.7277 high. On the downside, below 0.7102 minor support

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside at this point. With break of 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3773, fall from 1.4247 should target a retest on 1.3480 low. On the upside, above 1.3811 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral a

Prior 52.1 Manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.9 Composite PMI 52.5 vs 51.6 expected Prior 52.2 Comment: Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence: “The UK economy picked up a bit more pace in August, adding to s

August flash services PMI 51.7 vs 51.5 expected Prior 51.7 August flash manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 51.8 expected Prior 51.9 August flash composite PMI 52.1 vs 51.7 expected Prior 52.0 After the misses from France and Germany, this is a bit of a surprise - espec

Prior 52.2 Services PMI 48.5 vs 50.1 expected Prior 49.8 Composite PMI 51.0 vs 51.3 expected Prior 51.3 Comment: Phil Smith, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence: "The recovery in the manufacturing sector has regained momentum, after

August flash services PMI 48.4 vs 49.8 expected Prior 49.6 August flash manufacturing PMI 51.5 vs 50.0 expected Prior 49.8 August flash composite PMI 48.8 vs 49.5 expected Prior 49.4 The French private sector economy remains weak in August, with another contra

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we get the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. Pretty much all of them are expected to pull back from prior month's levels given the ongoing Hormuz disruption and US-Iran stalemate. The data won't c

July retail sales -0.5% vs -0.5% m/m expected Prior +1.0%; revised to +0.7% July retail sales +1.6% vs +2.2% y/y expected Prir +4.2%; revised to +3.8% July retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.9% vs -0.5% m/m expected Prior +1.1%; revised to +0.9% July retail sale

Asia shares mixed as Nikkei heads for worst week in a month on oil fears China vice finance minister signals more fiscal support as economy slows USD slammed in Asia Friday: Bitcoin, gold, FX surge as investors hedge against US fiscal credibility concerns Gold

The post Eco Data 8/21/26 appeared first on ActionForex.

Japan July 2026 CPI 1.9% y/y, will be enough to keep BoJ September rate hike expectations on the boil vs. expected 1.9%, prior 1.6% 0.4% m/m (prior 0.3% Core CPI 1.9% y/y expected 1.8%, prior 1.6% CPI Ex-Food and Energy 1.9% y/y expected 1.9%, prior 1.7% I'll

The composite reading's slip to 52.5 from 53.2 still points to a third straight month of private sector expansion, keeping the growth narrative intact even as the pace moderates. The more telling signal for policymakers is the reacceleration in input price inf

The on month decline snaps an 11 month run of gains and points to some near term easing in the pipeline pressures that feed into consumer prices, though the year on year rate remains elevated at 7.7 percent. The mix within the data is notable, with industrial

It's a busy data agenda ahead, with the eyes mainly on the CPI data from Japan. I'll have a preview to come on this separately (ADDED, here it is), inclduing implications for the Bank of Japan's next policy meeting. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan

US Treasury auctions off $9 billion of 30-year TIPS at 2.973% vs 2.991% WI Fed's Musalem says hiking rates now could save more aggressive action later US Treasury Secretary Bessent says the long-dated bond buyback could be more than 4 billion US leading index

High yield: 2.973% WI level at the time of the auction 2.991% Stopped through by 1.8 bps Bid-to-cover ratio 2.82X Direct (domestic buyers) 13.4% Indirect (international buyers) 84.4% Dealers 2.1% The US Treasury's $9 billion auction of 30-year Treasury Inflati

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly pushed back against concerns that Treasury’s intervention in long-dated debt markets could blur lines between fiscal debt management and monetary policy. Speaking on Bloomberg television Thursday, Daly said it was too earl

Markets By upping the amount of long-term Treasury buybacks in off-cycle timing (two weeks after the quarterly refunding statement), US Treasury Secretary Bessent implicitly revealed to markets there’s a yield pain barrier. But while yields fell around 9 bps i

Brent crude broke above $94 and WTI through $87 today, both fresh highs since late July, after Trump threatened "TREMENDOUS Economic Consequences" against countries helping Iran evade sanctions. That oil breakout is dragging global bond yields higher again, US

U.S. initial jobless claims fell 6,000 to 206,000 in the week ended August 15, below market expectations for 210,000 and pointing to continued stability in labor-market conditions. However, the previous week’s figure was revised up to 212,000 from 209,000, mea

EURUSD extends steep ascend into second consecutive day and trading at three-month high on Thursday. Bulls hold grip after Wednesday’s 0.85% advance (the biggest daily gain since March 19), after generating bullish signals on break above 200DMA (1.1628) and Fi

Headlines: Will the US Treasury buyback be a game changer for markets? Why gold and Bitcoin surged together: What Treasury buybacks teach investors about dollar debasement Chart of the day: Is the Nasdaq breakout retesting or failing? EUR/USD extends gains to

Selling pressure on the Japan 225 has intensified as markets increasingly anticipate a possible Bank of Japan rate hike in September. According to Reuters, policymakers are considering taking action at the 17–18 September meeting and may be open to tightening

Poor weather conditions have hampered economic recovery Limited usable transport routes on major rivers likely to impair industrial output, export growth The low water levels are noticeably impacting overall economic activity in the third quarter ECB rate hike

The US Treasury is defending bond yields. The dovish Fed is weakening the dollar. The US dollar has plummeted to its lowest level since May following the Treasury’s decision to increase its long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion from 9 September

Key takeaways Gold surges: XAU/USD jumped 4.35% on 19 August, its biggest one-day gain since February, lifting its August gain to 10.7%. USD debasement drives gold: Treasury bond buybacks have fuelled fiscal-dominance concerns, shifting focus from yields to US

GBP/USD surged to 1.3613 on Wednesday, reaching a three-month high. Investors are digesting fresh UK inflation and labour market data. Consumer inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, up from 2.6% in June and in line with forecasts. Core inflation held steady a

The US dollar has come under moderate pressure as long-term US Treasury yields have declined. Another factor has been the US Treasury Department’s decision to increase buyback operations for securities with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years in an effort t

EUR/USD’s rally continues today and the strong break of 1.1621 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323 at 1.1613) solidifies the case that fall from 1.2081 has completed as a three wave correction at 1.1323. Intraday bias stays on the upside

USD/JPY’s break of 158.58 minor support suggests that rebound from 155.22 has completed at 159.76. Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 155.22 low. In case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen from 159.59 to 160.62 zone (50% and 61.

GBP/USD’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Rise from 1.3139 would target 100% projection of 1.3139 to 1.3557 from 1.3272 at 1.3690. On the downside, below 1.3521 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. In the bigger pic

USD/CHF’s extended decline argues that rebound from 0.7603 has completed with three waves up to 0.8205. Intraday bias is back on the downside for rising channel support (now at 0.7921). Sustained break there will solidify this case, and target 0.7760 support n

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral and more consolidations would be seen first. Further rally is expected as long as 0.7026 resistance turned support holds. Above 0.7128 will extend the rise from 0.6864 to 161.8% projection of 0.6864 to 0.7026 from 0.692

USD/CAD’s fall from 1.4247 resumed after brief consolidations. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.3480 to 1.4247 at 1.3773. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 1.3480 low. On the upside, above 1.3909 minor resis

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. Some consolidations could be seen below 216.20 first. Further rise is in favor as long as 213.28 support holds. Break of 216.20 will target a retest on 219.56 high. Nevertheless, firm break

SK Hynix swap costs, which spiked to 1000bp in June, now said to halve Run on banks feared as concern rises over government seizing deposits to fund war Australia's jobless rate climbs to a near four year high in July PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.78

The post Eco Data 8/20/26 appeared first on ActionForex.

High yield: 5.204% WI level at the time of the auction 5.199% Tail 0.5 bps Bid-to-cover ratio 2.53X Direct (domestic buyers) 24.59% Indirect (international buyers) 62.93% Dealers 12.49% The US Treasury sold $18 billion of 20-year bonds at a high yield of 5.204

Trump spoke to reporters at the White House about the tariff deal with Canada, and added a couple of comments on Iran. On Canada, Trump said “we’ve come to a deal” following what he described as a good conversation with Canada's Prime Minister Carney. He reite

EURAUD: ⬆️ Buy – EURAUD reversed from support zone – Likely to rise to resistance level 1.6500 EURAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the support level 1.6260 (which has been reversing the price from July) and the support trend

Markets The US Treasury today announced that it is increasing, by at least double, the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal coupon securities (10y to 20y and 20y to 30y). The current maximum size of $2bn per operation will be a

What’s happening: Dollar sold off broadly Wednesday after Treasury announced it will at least double its long-dated debt buyback operations, from $2bn to at least $4bn, starting September 9, pulling the 30-year Treasury yield back below 5.20% from above 5.33%

US Treasury Statement The U.S. Treasury announced today that it will at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasury securities, increasing the maximum purchase from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation

Further rise is in favor in EUR/USD with 1.1510 support intact. On the upside, decisive break of 1.1621 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323 at 1.1613) will solidify the case that fall from 1.2081 has completed as a three wave correction a

While further rise cannot be ruled out in USD/JPY, strong resistance could emerge from 159.59 to 160.62 zone (50% and 61.8% retracement of 163.97 to 155.22) to limit upside. On the downside, firm break of 158.58 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper p

Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays mildly on the upside at this point. Rise from 1.3139 would target 100% projection of 1.3139 to 1.3557 from 1.3272 at 1.3690. However, firm break of 1.3473 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback. In the bigger pic

No change in USD/CHF’s outlook as range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral. With 0.8029 support intact, further rally is expected. On the upside, firm break of 0.8205 will extend the rise from 0.7603 to 161.8% projection 0.7603 to 0.8041 from 0.7